Scenario Development and Cross Impact Analysis
Scenarios provide an important description of what might occur and not what will happen.)
Requirements:
A completed scenarios template (Part 1)
A presentation of 10 slides with audio narration (Part 1)
A transcript of the presentation narration (Part 1)
Support documents for the presentation (evidences of the scenarios and scenario template to be organized and written with reference in a separate paper) (Part 1)
A 1,500-word report (references) (Part 2)
Make sure to: (Assignment MUST cover the below)
Part One: Scenarios Development
This first part of the assessment requires you to develop two scenarios. This development process should closely follow the guidelines given in the course materials and MUST contain the following elements:
A clear statement of the focus of interest for the scenario. A good way to think about this will be to focus on the concerns of a particular industry or organisation.
There MUST be a clear time set for the scenario, for example, 2030.
At least five inevitable to be present in both scenarios.
At least five dynamic trends to develop at different paces in each scenario.
At least three critical uncertainties to be created in the form of a question with two answers.
A scenario story that links all the factors together along a coherent timeline.
Using the inevitable, dynamic trends and critical uncertainties developed in the course activities, you are to:
1-Further develop and finalise two scenarios using your completed scenario development template. You might also like to consider the inclusion of wild cards but remember to keep them credible and relevant to make them useful to your later impact analysis. (It is important that you have sufficient evidence to support your scenarios to enhance their believability.)
2- Create presentation of your scenarios:
A-Highlighting the key issues and exploring the various avenues. Your presentation MUST contain 10 slides and be accompanied by a voice over narration (70 % of the presentation)
B- Differentiate between scenarios and predictions or forecasts (10 % of the presentation)
C- Describe how scenario planning approaches can be applied to strategic management problems (10 % of the presentation)
D- Articulate what parts of the process distinguish scenario planning from other approaches to planning (10 % of the presentation)
When you submit your presentation for assessment, you should include all support material used in the presentation along with any appropriate support notes.
Part Two: Cross Impact Analysis
Using your scenarios, you MUST:
-develop an analysis of the key attributes, capabilities and competencies needed by the organisation, or industry of your choice; this may or may not be within your current employment role or one you have previously held.
It is an Important also to include and show the below in this report:
A-Clearly communicate issues and use sound underpinning knowledge and evidence for any analysis.
B-Demonstrate knowledge and understanding of concepts, theories, techniques, processes and terminologies discussed during the course:
C-Demonstrate the ability to apply your knowledge and understanding in completing the assessment.
D-Use well-structured and supported arguments and include a thorough analysis.
E-Proficiently triangulate between different approaches and theories as part of your evaluation and discussion.
F-Discuss and evaluate the perceived strengths and/or weaknesses of theory and
Note:
The scenarios must be developed in this sheet inside file named “scenarios template”.
*** Words count = 1500 words.
*** Make PowerPoint slides = 10 slides.
*** In-Text Citations and References using Harvard style. (If needed)
***Attachment has been uploaded named “scenarios template”.
